Expanding and Improving Data on Nonfatal Gun Crime Incidents

Overview

This study will collect data on nonfatal shootings (NFS) in cities with populations greater than 250,000, assess the association of NFS with measures of gun crime, estimate statistical models for predicting NFS, and estimate the effects of key law changes on NFS, including Missouri’s repeal of its handgun purchaser licensing law (2007) and its implementation of permitless carry (2017).

Status

In Progress

Purpose

This research project is designed to expand and improve data resources for gun violence research on nonfatal criminal shootings, identify and adjust for potential biases in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) nonfatal gun crime data as reflective of nonfatal shootings, and estimate the effects of key laws on the incidence of nonfatal shootings in Missouri and elsewhere.

Approach

• Collect data on NFS from law enforcement agencies that serve cities or counties with greater than 250,000 population for the period 2000–2020.
• Use Bland–Altman plots to visualize differences between direct measures of NFS and UCR measures of nonfatal gun crime and assess correlations between these measures via the intraclass correlation coefficient.
• Regression and machine learning models will be used to predict NFS with broadly available data relevant to gun violence, police capacity and accountability.
• Estimate the effects of key state gun laws on NFS drawing upon RAND's findings on the most appropriate modeling approaches for such studies, as well as synthetic control and augmented synthetic control models.

Significance

Research on the effects of state gun laws or of local initiatives to curb gun violence rely upon the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program data. UCR reporting methods for robberies and aggravated assaults include information on weapon use, but reporting on firearm-involved nonfatal crime does not distinguish cases with victims with gunshot wounds versus those in which no victims were shot. As a result, we have limited research on the impacts of interventions on nonfatal shootings.

Investigator Bio

Daniel Webster is the inaugural Bloomberg Professor of American Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health where he directs the Center for Gun Policy and Research. He has published widely on the prevention of gun violence, suicide, and substance abuse. He is the lead editor and a contributor to Reducing Gun Violence in America: Informing Policy with Evidence and Analysis (Johns Hopkins University Press).