Preventing Unintended Consequences: A Mixed Methods Analysis of County-Level ERPO Use and Incidence of Injurious Shootings by Police in Florida 2015-2021

Overview

This study will examine the relationship between local variation in extreme risk protection order (ERPO) implementation (including county rate of use, respondent and incident characteristics, and law enforcement agency processes) and incidence of three forms of firearm injury: firearm homicides, firearm suicides, and injurious shootings by police across 67 counties of Florida.

Status

Awarded

Purpose

Within-state variation in ERPO use has challenged state-level analyses of ERPO effectiveness. Moreover, relatively little is known about when, why, or how law enforcement officers (LEOs) use ERPOs in eligible contexts. This project seeks to improve knowledge of ERPO implementation processes and the potential benefits or unintended consequences of their use.

Approach

This study employs a sequential explanatory mixed methods design, involving quantitative and qualitative content analyses of all ERPO petitions in Florida through 2021, comparative interrupted time series and marginal structural models to analyze the effect of policy implementation, and officer interviews in high- and low-use counties to explore the role of agency processes. Collectively, these methods investigate: public health records. Utilize rigorous statistical techniques to answer the following questions:

• Whether Florida’s ERPO statute is effective in equitably reducing multiple forms of firearm injury at the county level.
• The role of individual and situational characteristics in ERPO implementation.
• How agency procedures and norms across county jurisdictions may shape ERPO uptake, implementation, and outcomes.

Significance

LEOs are a critical component of safe and equitable ERPO implementation, but little is known about their processes after ERPO enactment. This research will inform current and future policy implementation by improving knowledge of when, why, how, and to what effect LEOs use ERPOs in eligible contexts.

Investigator Bios

Dr. Julie Ward is an assistant professor in the Department of Medicine, Health, and Society and the Program in Public Policy Studies at Vanderbilt University. She is also a board certified advanced public health nurse. Dr. Ward’s research focuses on firearm policy, shootings by police, and public health and safety systems reform, with an emphasis on equity in safety and the prevention of injury and violence-related trauma.

Dr. Cassandra Crifasi is an associate professor of health policy and management and co-director of the Center for Gun Violence Solutions at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. She has over 10 years of experience studying gun violence and is a nationally recognized firearm policy expert. Dr. Crifasi has successfully partnered with law enforcement agencies on prior policy-relevant research and dissemination in Florida and nationally.